If last week was full of doom and gloom, then this week could safely be called a positive one with consumer confidence showing moderate improvements and home price numbers reported as upbeat. Heading into Labor Day weekend, here’s what’s going on nationally:

Arizona builders are surviving the slump – barely, reports the Arizona Republic.

The federal tax credit kept the industry alive through the spring of 2010. Is there another one in the works? Don’t count on it, says the San Francisco Chronicle.

Meanwhile, mortgage applications for homebuyers and refinancing were up last week – without the help of a fed tax credit. Hope or phantom numbers?

Banks and real estate: Their stormy relationship gets even hotter.

“The housing market is solid.” In Canada.

Here comes Earl. You might be reading this after the fact, but as this is being posted, Hurricane Earl is barreling up the east coast of the U.S. Ironically enough, we’re writing about builders vs. Mother Nature for our November issue. 
 

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The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index which had declined in July, improved moderately in August. The Index now stands at 53.5, up from 51.0 in July. The Present Situation Index decreased to 24.9 from 26.4. The Expectations Index increased to 72.5 from 67.5 last month.

The Consumer Confidence Survey is based on a representative sample of 5,000 U.S. households. The monthly survey is conducted for The Conference Board by TNS.

“Consumer confidence posted a modest gain in August, the result of an improvement in consumers’ short-term outlook,” says Says Lynn Franco, director of The Conference Board Consumer Research Center. "Expectations about future business and labor market conditions have brightened somewhat, but overall, consumers remain apprehensive about the future. All in all, consumers are about as confident today as they were a year ago."
 

Data through June 2010, released today by Standard & Poor’s for its S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices show that the U.S. National Home Price Index rose 4.4% in the second quarter of 2010, after having fallen 2.8% in the first quarter. Nationally, home prices are 3.6% above their year-earlier levels. In June, 17 of the 20 MSAs covered by S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices and both monthly composites were up; and the two composites and 15 MSAs showed year-over-year gains. Housing prices have rebounded from crisis lows, but other recent housing indicators point to more ominous signals as tax incentives have ended and foreclosures continue.

“While the numbers are upbeat, other more recent data on home sales and mortgages point to fewer gains ahead,” says David M. Blitzer, Chairman of the Index Committee at Standard & Poor's. “Even with concerns about near term developments, we recognize that the housing market is in better shape than this time last year. Further, California’s cities have moved from some of the hardest hit to three of the four leading cities based on year-over-year gains. Among the other hard hit cities, the news is also a bit encouraging – Las Vegas, however, remains among the weaker cities.

“Seventeen of the 20 MSAs and both Composites saw home prices increase in June over May – Las Vegas was down 0.6%, Phoenix and Seattle were both flat. Through the second quarter, 15 of the 20 MSAs and both Composites have positive annual growth rates, and no market is registering a double digit decline. The worry starts when you remember that the Homebuyers’ Tax Credit has expired, foreclosures are still at high levels, and July data on home sales and starts were very, very weak. The inventory of unsold homes and months’ supply data were particularly troubling. If this relative weakness in demand continues, it will likely filter through to home prices in coming months.”
 

A couple Fridays ago we blogged about an amazing shipping container home and heard from, via our comments, Atlanta-based structural engineer George W. Runkle of Runkle Consulting, Inc., who shared a recent project he helped engineer. Here’s what he has to say on the challenges of engineering a shipping container home. The top floor was a challenge because:

The top floor is completely clear-spanned, no interior columns at all.  To handle this, the first idea was to run beams from side to side, however they get in the way of ductwork for HVAC.  We looked at bar joists, but the openings were not large enough, and they ate up head room.  So, we specially designed trusses made from 2x2 angles with a square opening made from 3/4" steel rods top and bottom at the center, which allows the ductwork to pass through.   This preserves our headroom and gives an open area.  Also, we made the subwalls 8" thick instead of 10" thick (the normal thickness here in Atlanta) to give you a bit more room in the garage underneath.

This home was different from many other shipping container projects in that it had a basement so that presented its own challenges:

This is the basement/garage area under the house. See the beam pockets at the top of the subwall - the containers are supported by several beams running right to left.  This is a bit narrow, but remember it is 40' long.  A typical garage is a bit over 20' long, so it is twice the normal length.  The owner of the container house on the right side keeps 4 cars in his garage.  They are in their pretty tight, but they do fit.

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It’s been a rough week for the industry – we blogged about newly built homes declining in July-  the lowest sales rate for new homes on record -  and the National Association of Realtors reporting of existing-home sales plunging.

Here’s how some of the national media reported the news this week:

The Wall Street Journal puts it all into perspective.

The Calculated Risk blog has a terrific [or is that terrifying?] graph of the “distressed gap” of home sales.

The Wall Street Journal also weighs in with the housing bubble’s “day of reckoning.”

The plunge in housing will continue, and it must, opines Seeking Alpha.

We’d also be remiss if we didn’t mention Hurricane Katrina’s five-year anniversary. Here’s a great photoset of then (2005) and now (2010) shots from USA Today.

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Sales of newly built, single-family homes declined 12.4% to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 276,000 units in July, according to data released by the U.S. Commerce Department today. This was the lowest sales rate for new homes on record.

"Today's report, though not unexpected, is disappointing in view of the improvement in sales activity that we saw in June," said Bob Jones, chairman of the National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) and a home builder from Bloomfield Hills, Mich. "Potential home buyers have become very hesitant due to uncertainty about the economy and job market, and are putting off the decision to buy until they feel more confident."

Sales of new homes fell across every region in July, with a 13.9% decline registered in the Northeast, an 8.3 percent decline in the Midwest, an 8.7% decline in the South and a 25.4% decline in the West.

Meanwhile, the latest figures indicated that builders are keeping a tight rein on the inventory of new homes for sale. That inventory remained unchanged at 210,000 units in July. However, due to the slower pace of sales activity, the month's supply of homes rose to 9.1 from 8.0 in the previous month.

Existing-home sales were sharply lower in July following expiration of the home buyer tax credit but home prices continued to gain, according to the National Association of Realtors.

How low? Sales dropped 27.2% to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 3.83 million units in July from a downwardly revised 5.26 million in June, and are 25.5% below the 5.14 million-unit level in July 2009.

Sales are at the lowest level since the total existing-home sales series launched in 1999, and single family sales – accounting for the bulk of transactions – are at the lowest level since May of 1995.

Lawrence Yun, NAR chief economist, said a soft sales pace likely will continue for a few additional months. “Consumers rationally jumped into the market before the deadline for the home buyer tax credit expired. Since May, after the deadline, contract signings have been notably lower and a pause period for home sales is likely to last through September,” he said. “However, given the rock-bottom mortgage interest rates and historically high housing affordability conditions, the pace of a sales recovery could pick up quickly, provided the economy consistently adds jobs.
 

Nationwide housing starts inched up 1.7% to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 546,000 units in July from a downwardly revised figure in the previous month, according to U.S. Commerce Department figures released last week. The gain occurred entirely on the multifamily side, with single-family housing production falling 4.2% to 432,000 units.

“Builders are very reluctant to build more homes in view of the current state of the economy and weak buyer demand,” noted Bob Jones, chairman of the National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) and a home builder from Bloomfield Hills, Mich.

“Right now the housing market is essentially in a holding pattern,” acknowledged NAHB Chief Economist David Crowe. “As our latest member surveys have indicated, builders are seeing greater hesitancy among potential home buyers who are uncertain about what’s in store for the economy and jobs going forward. That said, favorable home buying conditions including historically low mortgage rates and low house prices should help spur additional demand as the job market gradually improves later this year.”

The entire 1.7% gain in housing production this July was due to a 32.6% jump on the more volatile multifamily side, which brought that sector back closer to trend at a 114,000-unit rate following a major dip in the previous month. Meanwhile, single-family housing production declined 4.2% to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 432,000 units, its lowest mark since May of 2009.
 

Modern and country?

Most definitely. This project, design by Koko Architecture was envisioned as a modern country retreat set on a wooded five-acre site in rural Pennsylvania.  Says the architect:

The house is anchored by a massive stone chimney hand set in the tradition of the best Pennsylvania farmhouses. This permanence is contrasted by the dramatic floating glass walls of the living room. Severe in form, the materiality of the house allows it to become part of the surrounding landscape.

The house consists of three interlocking volumes say the architect.  

While each volume is very simple in its form, the exchange between them allows for a wide variety of spatial experiences.  The first impression one has is that the house is two “black-boxes” connected by a glass bridge.  However, as you enter the house the perceptions change.  From the interior, the bridge is no longer a figure, but rather a looking glass to the outside.  The single storied master suite becomes an intimate walnut valise, retreating from the exposed glass room.The guest suite is reached by a dramatic stainless steel bridge passing through a two-storied screened porch. The northern end of the house has a private balcony looking down to the lap pool set into the woods.

Photos by: Don Pearse Photographers 
 

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More giant builder mergers in the future? Possible.

California homebuilder takes a gamble: Buy land now and hope for housing comeback.  

Lag in home sales might not be sole fault of end of tax credit hangover.

Too much empty housing stock a drag on economy says Obama.

Bicycle City: North America’s first bicycle-only subdivision.

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