As the U.S. economy recovers, emerging trends in demographics and consumer behavior will become major drivers of new housing opportunities, resulting in a residential market vastly different from the one that existed prior to the recession, according to Housing in America: The Next Decade, a new research paper authored by John K. McIlwain, senior resident fellow, Urban Land Institute/J. Ronald Terwilliger Chair for Housing.

“The old ‘normal’ will not return,” McIlwain predicts. “Over time, a new mode of metropolitan development will emerge, presenting opportunities and stiff challenges. Those who fail to understand these new trends will find themselves building what is no longer in demand.”

Despite the housing stabilization that has begun in the nation’s strongest employment markets, overall home prices will likely decline an additional 10 percent this year, contributing to what is already an unprecedented number of foreclosures and “underwater” mortgages (loan amounts that are higher than the current value of the homes), McIlwain said. The growing number of consumers who are choosing to walk away from those mortgages suggests a fundamental change from the long-held notion of homeownership as the ultimate American Dream.

Two key predictions from Housing in America for the decade ahead:

• Home appreciation will slow considerably, to about 1 percent to 2 percent annually.
• The current U.S. homeownership rate, now at 67 percent (a decline from the record high of 69 percent at the height of the housing boom) will fall further, to about 62 percent.

The report also cites four major U.S. demographic waves to watch in the new decade:

• Aging baby boomers (55 to 64 years old) – Although they are nearing retirement age, many will keep working out of necessity or by choice. Some will be forced to stay in their suburban homes until values recover. Those who are able to move will not choose traditional retirement locations or senior housing, opting instead for more mixed-age living environments that cater to their active lifestyles.
• Younger baby boomers (46 to 54 years old), now in or entering their prime earning years – This group will also face a tough time selling suburban homes, hampering the ability of these boomers to move.
• Generation Y – This tech-savvy generation has a population of about 86 million, more than the baby boomers. Gen Yers place high value on community; on places (either virtual or actual) to gather and share information, ideas and opinions.
• Immigrants – Already 40 million strong, the total population of legal and illegal immigrants in the U.S. has an even greater impact when the children and grandchildren are included as a factor. The tendency of immigrants to cluster, and to live in multi-generational households, suggests that they would prefer larger homes if they could afford them and if the homes were in neighborhoods with a strong sense of community.